| Illinois primary results and predictions |
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A Public Policy (D) poll has been released out of Illinois since my last post. They give Romney an overwhelming 15 point lead. While I do believe he will win today, I think that margin is a bit of a stretch. Here is how I see the Illinois Republican primary turning out.
- Mitt Romney - 43%
- Rick Santorum - 34%
- Newt Gingrich - 14%
- Ron Paul - 8%
Keep in mind that this is a prediction for the presidential popularity contest. The real vote will directly elect candidate-assigned delegates. The result of that contest should give Romney a plurality of the delegates, though likely not a majority.
I'll post the results tonight as the returns come in.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election 2012 GOP Primaries Illinois 2012 IL President 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:15am 03/20/12:: link |
| Sunday, March 18, 2012 |
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| Illinois Republican primary |
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| This Tuesday, Illinois voters will head to the polls to cast meaningless ballots for one of several Republican presidential candidates. Meaningless, you ask? In Illinois' unique primary election format, voters will also vote for delegates directly. These are the meaningful ones as they will determine who Illinois sends to the Republican National Convention in August.
I checked out an example ballot to see what they look like. In the top section were the expected names - Romney, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul (along with Perry, though he has dropped out, of course). That is the "presidential popularity contest," and the result of this contest has no impact on the delegate count or the nomination process.
Further down the ballot, a list of potential delegates were noted by name with a presidential candidate's name attached to each delegate. This is where the Illinois Republican primary will be decided. Each vote for a delegate is a de facto vote for the GOP candidate attached to that delegate. That is what we call a "direct primary election."
Now that we've got that explanation down, here are the latest polls coming out of Illinois.
| Latest Illinois Republican Primary Polls |
| Poll |
Romney |
Santorum |
Gingrich |
Spread |
| Rasmussen |
41 |
32 |
14 |
Romney +9 |
| FOX Chicago/WAA |
37 |
31 |
14 |
Romney +6 |
| Chicago Tribune |
35 |
31 |
12 |
Romney +4 |
|
As the numbers show, Romney is ahead by a half-dozen points or so. If the actual results reflect the polls taken so far, Romney should earn a plurality of the 54 delegates at stake on Tuesday, but perhaps not a majority. The presidential popularity contest will probably be the media's method of choice for determining the "winner" in Illinois on Tuesday night, but be sure to track the votes for delegates to get a truer picture.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election 2012 GOP Primaries Illinois 2012 IL President 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:20pm 03/18/12:: link |
| Saturday, March 17, 2012 |
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| 2012 Senate election projection update |
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| Polls and a new candidate have altered the Senate electoral landscape in Election Projection's latest numbers for the 2012 Senate election. Republican Challenger Connie Mack IV is polling 6 points ahead of Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson in Florida, and in Missouri, Democrat Claire McCaskill is running behind several possible Republican nominees. And then there's Maine. Former Governor Angus King, an Independent, has thrown his hat into the ring to succeed outgoing Republican Olympia Snowe. With his decision to run, he vaults immediately into the frontrunner slot in that race.
As a result of these updates, Republicans are projected to enjoy a 52-46-2 majority in the Senate. That tally includes six Republican takeovers (FL, MO, MT, ND, NE, WI), one Democratic gain (CT - from IND) and the Independent takeover in Maine. The GOP is benefiting from the fact that out of 33 senate races this year, they must defend only 10.
In fact, even as Election Projection currently gives President Obama the edge in the2012 presidential election, this is shaping up to be a potentially huge year for Republicans in the Senate. In addition to the six seats they are projected to win, Hawaii, New Mexico and Virginia are also in play. On the other hand, only two Republican seats other than Maine are in the mix, Massachusetts and Nevada.
Filed under: Senate '12 Florida 2012 FL Senate 2012 Maine 2012 ME Senate 2012 Missouri 2012 MO Senate 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:56am 03/17/12:: link |
| Tuesday, March 13, 2012 |
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| Alabama and Mississippi primary results |
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The returns are still coming in, but at 10:35pm on primary night, Rick Santorum appears headed to victory in two key southern states, Alabama and Mississippi. Even though front runner Mitt Romney has fallen to third place in both races, it is Newt Gingrich who stands to lose the most should the current results hold. After winning South Carolina and Georgia - and nothing else - Gingrich's campaign faced must wins in the South tonight. It looks like he won't be getting them. And with Santorum leading, there will be added pressure for Newt to close up shop on this year's bid for the Republican presidential nomination.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election 2012 GOP Primaries Alabama 2012 AL President 2012 Mississippi 2012 MS President 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:41pm 03/13/12:: link |
| Monday, March 12, 2012 |
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| Mississippi primary election polls and predictions |
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Just like in neighboring Alabama, polls in the Magnolia State are scarce and recent - and promise a very close, very competitive race. Only two have been conducted this year, both within the last week.
| Mississippi Republican Primary Polls |
| State |
Romney |
Santorum |
Gingrich |
Spread |
| Public Policy (D) |
31 |
27 |
33 |
Gingrich +2 |
| Rasmussen |
35 |
27 |
27 |
Romney +8 |
|
Predictions? How about another shot in the dark?
- Mitt Romney - 33%
- Newt Gingrich - 31%
- Rick Santorum - 29%
- Ron Paul - 7%
Delegates are awarded in Mississippi much the same as in Alabama. Therefore, no candidate will enjoy a large delegate advantage here either.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election 2012 GOP Primaries Mississippi 2012 MS President 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:43pm 03/12/12:: link |
| Alabama primary election polls and predictions |
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This one is very hard to call. All three of the top candidates for the Republican presidential nomination have a legitimate chance to win Alabama tomorrow. The majority of polls testing this race have been conducted in the last several days, so identifying a trend is difficult. Take a look at these numbers and you can see just how close this race is.
| Alabama Republican Primary Polls |
| State |
Romney |
Santorum |
Gingrich |
Spread |
| Public Policy (D) |
31 |
29 |
30 |
Romney +1 |
| Rasmussen |
28 |
29 |
30 |
Gingrich +1 |
| Alabama State |
20 |
17 |
21 |
Gingrich +1 |
|
How would you like to try to predict this primary? Those numbers are so close that it's anybody's guess, really. But I'm a sucker for predictions, so here we go - just don't let too much ride on them.
- Newt Gingrich - 32%
- Rick Santorum - 31%
- Mitt Romney - 30%
- Ron Paul - 7%
As for the delegates to be awarded, don't expect any one of the top three to run away with a comfortable margin. Alabama's district level, hybrid "winner-take-all or most" format should make for a very even distribution of the 47 of 50 delegates up for grabs in the state tomorrow.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election 2012 GOP Primaries Alabama 2012 AL President 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:30pm 03/12/12:: link |
| Saturday, March 10, 2012 |
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| Kansas election results - Santorum wins going away |
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The Jayhawk state proved to be very friendly to Rick Santorum today. The former Pennsylvania senator scored just over half the vote, easily trouncing Mitt Romney, his closest competitor, by 30 points. Here are the final results with 100% of precincts reporting.
- Rick Santorum, 51.2%
- Mitt Romney, 20.9%
- Newt Gingirch, 14.4%
- Ron Paul, 12.6%
Since Romney eclipsed the 20% threshold, he will be awared seven delegates. Santorum is, of course, the big delegate winner. He adds 33 delegates to his cache. Neither Gingrich nor Paul got enough votes to earn delegate consideration.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election 2012 GOP Primaries Kansas 2012 KS President 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:11pm 03/10/12:: link |
| Friday, March 9, 2012 |
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| Kansas Republican caucus predictions |
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| Tomorrow in the heartland, Republicans will decide how Kansas' forty delegates will vote at this year's Republican National Convention in Tampa starting August 27. Who will win here? I have scoured the web for polls testing that question and have come up with exactly zero surveys. Without polling information at our disposal, predicting winners is much more problematic. But that doesn't stop The Blogging Caesar!
Looking back at 2008 when Mike Huckabee won sixty percent of the vote in Kansas, it might be easy to say Rick Santorum has the advantage. However, the Kansas caucus was held early in the cycle last time around (Feb 8), when Huckabee was still enjoying front runner status. Even so, Kansas large socially conservative bloc of Republicans should bolster Santorum's vote totals.
Will it be enough for him to win here as he has done in neighboring states such as Oklahoma, Colorado and Missouri? I think it will - but just by a whisker. In fact, I believe the winner here tomorrow will not get to 40% - maybe not even 35%. So, with that, here are my Kansas election predictions - which should be taken with a grain of salt given the complete absence of polls.
- Rick Santorum - 33%
- Mitt Romney - 31%
- Newt Gingrich - 24%
- Ron Paul - 11%
Caucuses begin at the precinct level at 11am EST.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election 2012 GOP Primaries Kansas 2012 KS President 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:18pm 03/09/12:: link |
| Thursday, March 8, 2012 |
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| Republican Presidential Nomination - upcoming battles |
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| The first post-Super-Tuesday engagements in the continuing saga that is the 2012 Republican presidential nomination process will be this weekend. On Saturday, four different caucuses are on tap. Only one of them, Kansas, is "stateside." The other three will be conducted in overseas territories of the United States, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Northern Marianas and Guam. Saturday's delegate counts are 40 for Kansas and 9 for each of the offshore elections.
The next primaries will be on Tuesday, March 13 when Alabama and Mississippi will hold their nomination contests. Also on the schedule Tuesday are American Samoa and Hawaii They will hold nominating caucuses that day. The delegate counts for Tuesday's elections are 50 for Alabama, 40 for Mississippi, 20 for Hawaii and 9 for American Samoa.
For more details on the GOP primary elections, see Election Projection's Republican Presidential Nomination page.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election 2012 GOP Primaries AL President 2012 KS President 2012 MS President 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:50pm 03/08/12:: link |
| Wednesday, March 7, 2012 |
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| Rep. Donald Payne, D - NJ, passes away |
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My heart goes out today to the family and friends of Democratic Congressman Donald Payne. He succumbed to colon cancer yesterday. The long-term veteran on Capitol Hill was 77. A re-election to fill his seat may not take place until November, depending on New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's decision. The Hill has this explanation:
| Under New Jersey law, the governor can choose any date for a special congressional election, including the date of the next regularly scheduled election. Historically, New Jersey has chosen that option to cut down on the cost and logistical challenges of holding elections on multiple days. |
His passing will not impact the balance of power in the House of Representative since he represented a very blue district which will be easily retained by the Democrats.
Filed under: 2012 House New Jersey 2012 NJ House 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:26pm 03/07/12:: link |
| Tuesday, March 6, 2012 |
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| Super Tuesday results - updated4 |
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| Starting tonight around 9pm EST, I'll be posting Super Tuesday results - updated here and discussing their impact on the 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination process. Check back often to see how things are turning out for your favorite Republican presidential candidate.
Update: (9:25pm) So far we have several races called among the 10 primaries and causus held today. Rick Santorum has won Oklahoma and Tennessee and leads by 2 in Ohio. Romney takes Massachusetts, Vermont and Virgnia. Gingrich enjoys strong win in his homestate of Georgia. Returns in the three caucus states, North Dakota, Alaska and Idaho are either just starting to come or have not yet begun.
Update2: (10:15pm) Ohio is still to close to call. Even though Santorum leads by about 12,000 with the majority of the vote counted, the lion's share of the outstanding vote will come in from counties that lean toward Romney. Looks like another nail biter!
Update3: (10:47pm) Santorum wins North Dakota; Romney pulls closer to Santorum in Ohio. With 16% left to count, it's down to just one point.
Update4: (11:06pm) Mitt Romney's folks are saying "Santorum doesn't have the votes to catch up" - and he has just taken a 1400 vote lead. It's going to be Romney.
Filed under: 2012 Super Tuesday 2012 Presidential Election 2012 GOP Primaries
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:20am 03/06/12:: link |
| Welcome to Election Projection |
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| A lot of folks are coming to Election Projection today by way of search engines. If that is you, then this is probably your first time to visit. Let me offer you a hearty welcome! While you're here, I thought I'd give an overview of all the features and fun that can be found here.
Of course, with a name like "Election Projection," you might expect extensive resources by which you can track the upcoming elections in November. Indeed, that is a large part of EP's content. Below you'll find links to handy summary pages which include frequently updated at-a-glance projections of different state-by-state races.
- 2012 Presidential Elections: The current numbers give President Obama a comfortable 303-235 lead in the all important race for the White House.
- 2012 Senate Elections: For the moment, we have a projected tie in the Senate, with VP Biden casting the deciding vote.
- 2012 Congressional Elections: Redistricting has shuffled around the make up of our 435 congressional districts, but the current projected tally looks almost unchanged.
- 2012 Governor Elections: Just eleven gubernatorial races are on tap this year, but the GOP looks well-positioned to expand their statehouse majority.
On any of these pages, just click on a map to view one of 50 statepages with tons of information on the races and political landscape of each state.
In addition to the projections, EP also provides easy-to-use pages that cover other aspects of the election season.
Election Projection's previous results have been very accurate since it began back in 2003. I hope you'll stick around for a while and find out what all EP has to offer - and I'd be delighted if you'd make Election Projection a daily stop on the way toward Election Day, November 6.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election Senate '12 2012 House 2012 Governors Website administration
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:17pm 02/28/12:: link |
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